Manchester City Beat Liverpool — But Arsenal Still 90% Likely to Win Title – Opta
Manchester City’s vs Liverpool at Anfield was the kind of match that gets the Premier League title talk buzzing once again. But scratch beneath the surface, and the reality is that Arsenal are still sitting pretty at the top of the table – and according to the Opta supercomputer projections, have a whopping 90% chance of lifting the trophy.
Man City’s Anfield Win Gives Hope a Flicker – But Only a Glimmer
You can be forgiven for thinking that beating Liverpool away, especially in the style City did, would’ve sent the title talk into overdrive.
Gary Neville and others were quick to jump on the result, and you could almost hear the sigh of relief as the ‘one-horse race’ narrative got a bit more exciting.
The result did shave off a bit of the gap – before the weekend, Arsenal had opened up a nine point lead at the top. But after City’s win and Arsenal’s easy victory over Sunderland, the margin settled at six points, with Arsenal on 56 points and City on 50 after 25 games.
But the truth is the gap didn’t get that much tighter overall. If City had lost or drawn, it could’ve ballooned back out to nine. Instead, they clawed one back – but not enough to really test the leaders
Also Read: Mikel Arteta Reacts to Liverpool vs Man City Clash After Arsenal Extend 9 Points Lead
Opta Supercomputer: Arsenal’s Title Chances Barely Budge
The Opta supercomputer gives the clearest view yet, and before City’s Anfield trip (after Arsenal’s win over Sunderland), the Gunners were looking at a massive 93.64% chance of winning the Premier League. City, on the other hand were a far more distant 4.55%.
So, what did happen after that dramatic result at Anfield?
Arsenal’s probability took a tiny dip to 90.14%, while City’s rose to 8.15% – a gain of roughly 3.6 percentage points. Hardly the sort of seismic shift you’d expect from such a high-profile win.
Why Arsenal’s Run-In Still Looks A Lot More Favourable
Arsenal’s fixture list is a big part of the reason why the numbers haven’t shifted much. Mikel Arteta’s side now face three straight away games in the league, kicking off with Brentford on Thursday. Next up’s Wolves – one of only three remaining trips outside London for the Gunners this season, and that’s still only early February.
What’s pretty impressive is that Arsenal have already battled it out against eight of the current top ten teams on their travels. The only big ones left are Brentford and, of course, Manchester City at the Etihad.
They’ve taken down tough away tests against teams like Aston Villa (currently third), Manchester United (fourth), Liverpool (sixth), and others – and they don’t have to face most of them again.
Manchester City, on the other hand, still have a number of tough away trips and home matches to get through. Their last round of fixtures includes:
- Chelsea away
- Everton away
- Brentford at home
- Bournemouth away
- Aston Villa at home
- And the big one : a home match against Arsenal at the Etihad
Its that tougher run of games – particularly against other top half teams – that explains why even a big win at Anfield didnt really get Pep Guardiolas team all that excited.
One Game at a Time – for Arsenal anyway – remains the Simple Answer
Mikel Arteta has been saying the same thing for ages: “We just need to take it one game at a time.” The goal for the Gunners of ending the 22 year wait for the top flight title – since their famous Invincibles season of 2003-04 – is well and truly within sight… but of course if they get complacent thats when all hell will break loose.
While City showed a bit of grit to stay in the title race , the numbers say that this still remains Arsenals title to lose.
Six points clear and with a run in that is pretty kind to them , not to mention Opta giving them over 90% chance of winning the thing – its the challengers who have to do something pretty special to change things.
Arsenal fans will still wince every time they hear the “three point gap” talk – but right now they cant argue with the numbers. Those and the fixtures are all looking pretty much like its there for the taking.
Also Read: Regis Le Bris Hails Arsenal as “Best Team in Europe” After Sunderland’s 3-0 Defeat at Emirates
Manchester City Beat Liverpool — But Arsenal Still 90% Likely to Win Title – Opta